Risk/Reward Analysis

 

Now the tax collectors and sinners were all drawing near to hear him. And the Pharisees and the scribes grumbled, saying, “This man receives sinners and eats with them.” So he told them this parable: “What man of you, having a hundred sheep, if he has lost one of them, does not leave the ninety-nine in the open country, and go after the one that is lost, until he finds it? And when he has found it, he lays it on his shoulders, rejoicing. And when he comes home, he calls together his friends and his neighbors, saying to them, ‘Rejoice with me, for I have found my sheep that was lost.’ Just so, I tell you, there will be more joy in heaven over one sinner who repents than over ninety-nine righteous persons who need no repentance.” (Luke 15:1-7 ESV).

I am often asked, “What should I do?” The circumstances are always a bit unique, but the answer is always the same. I have used the “Risk/Reward” chart pictured here on many of these occasions. Since we know from Scripture that there are almost always consequences for our decisions and actions (cf. Galatians 6:7), it becomes important to spend a bit of time and do an analysis of the possible outcomes of any decision or action. In business, this is often called a cost/benefit analysis, which involves weighing the overall costs of a commercial activity to achieve the highest profit. We see an unusual example in our reading today when Jesus uses a parable that is counter-intuitive to any of our models of decision making. The shepherd in the parable has lost one of his sheep. We might ask with all of the cost involved in retrieving his one lost sheep shouldn’t the shepherd in Jesus’ parable have just cut his losses and moved on with the other ninety-nine? The answer was a resounding “no.”

 

Apparently cost/benefit analysis wasn’t used in tending sheep. In those days every single sheep was precious to the shepherd. A good shepherd would leave the other 99 to make a desperate search for one missing sheep. And in rescuing that one pathetic sheep, the shepherd would joyfully sling it over his shoulders to carry it home, gathering family and friends to celebrate when he got there.

 

In this parable of the lost sheep, the Reformers rediscovered a deep spiritual truth: God doesn’t cut his losses on those who have gone astray. No, he goes after the lost when they are wandering in their sins, heading straight down the path toward destruction. Just like lost sheep who can’t find their way home, neither can sinners. God comes looking for us because we are helpless and hopeless, and because he is full of grace and mercy. Listen to that again… God comes looking for us! Do you see the great hope and love in that truth? It is so important to get this right.